Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 28.275340 31.529904 35.269121 39.947606 45.741000 52.817320 62.345970
2025-06-22 23.295565 27.478756 32.786702 40.274069 51.051963 66.947657 94.499321
2025-06-29 20.089649 24.769429 31.210631 41.319928 58.208694 89.087592 165.560840
2025-07-06 17.907608 22.907265 30.287870 43.076414 67.981250 127.067918 394.171512
2025-07-13 15.739554 20.630504 28.202712 42.295731 73.295544 167.370064 1296.241180
2025-07-20 14.267646 19.117484 26.963477 42.615238 81.775067 244.656698 NaN
2025-07-27 13.105808 17.888640 25.923307 42.981503 91.396946 390.028980 NaN
2025-08-03 11.931873 16.471792 24.279017 41.532759 94.975874 564.851934 NaN
2025-08-10 11.196633 15.676951 23.613249 42.096058 106.821032 1273.816507 NaN
2025-08-17 10.582124 15.005285 23.053779 42.745016 120.938107 6834.713771 NaN
2025-08-24 10.032392 14.379495 22.474516 43.165951 135.953607 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 9.569140 13.854173 22.010082 43.766845 154.806277 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.038229 13.196982 21.261429 43.594398 172.587880 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 8.620740 12.714298 20.831097 44.368009 205.263739 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 8.284786 12.352454 20.617491 45.870625 260.754830 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 8.017211 12.093263 20.597461 48.156196 363.025522 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 7.617508 11.544664 19.827542 47.343688 410.850209 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 7.318056 11.165847 19.408982 47.811003 526.903793 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 7.047832 10.821540 19.025780 48.308716 704.411442 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 6.712489 10.323354 18.203447 46.590906 738.905605 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 6.501485 10.058632 17.931317 47.294634 1085.905870 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 6.310549 9.819711 17.693274 48.096542 1821.244267 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 6.124429 9.577056 17.415316 48.618041 3521.651647 NaN NaN